UFC fight night Edwards vs Brady Analysis

Leon Edwards by Unanimous Decision

1. Did I overestimate Edwards' control and fight IQ?

• Edwards is known for excellent distance management, timing, and composure, which normally favors him in 5-round fights.

• If I assumed he’d out-point his opponent rather than get drawn into a war or caught slipping, that could be a bias toward his technical, tactical style.

💣 2. Underestimating the opponent's pressure or adjustments?

• If the opponent (e.g. someone like Belal Muhammad or Shavkat Rakhmonov) applied relentless pressure, that might have neutralized Edwards’ rhythm.

• Did the opponent improve noticeably since previous fights? The model needs to adapt to fighter evolution — that’s a blind spot sometimes.

🧬 3. Stylistic mismatch ignored or undervalued?

• If the opponent had strong wrestling or clinch control, and the prediction banked too much on Edwards’ TDD or ability to escape the cage, that’s a tactical misread.

• Some fighters can weaponize cardio or mix levels so well that Edwards’ striking never gets going.

🧠 4. Mental edge or momentum shift?

• Was Edwards coming off a high-pressure situation (e.g. defending title, personal distractions)?

• Was the opponent hungry, in the best shape, on a strong win streak — and showing serious composure?

⏱️ 5. Recent damage or fatigue effects?

• If Edwards had a tough camp, hidden injuries, or took too much damage in previous fights and didn’t fully recover, that would dull his sharpness.

🔎 Final thought:

The most likely error was a combination of:

• Overestimating Edwards’ ability to control the tempo.

• Undervaluing the opponent’s pressure, wrestling, or clinch threat.

• Missing the mental or physical wear Edwards might have been under.

Jan Błachowicz vs. Carlos Ulberg

🔍 First — What was probably assumed in the prediction:

• Veteran edge: Jan has fought top-tier competition — Izzy, Rakic, Glover, Ankalaev, etc. That experience usually counts.

• Power parity: Both guys hit hard, but Jan has proven KO power against high-level opposition.

• Ulberg’s untested chin vs Jan’s Polish Power™ might’ve looked like a mismatch on paper.

• Grappling advantage: Jan has solid takedowns and top control — a route to neutralize a flashy striker like Ulberg.

🚨 What was probably missed:

1. Ulberg’s rapid evolution

• Ulberg has been sharpening his composure and defense with each fight.

• He’s no longer the brawler who gassed out and got clipped. He’s now calculating, patient, and picks clean shots.

• If the model was still weighting his early UFC fights (like vs. Kennedy Nzechukwu), that’s outdated.

2. Jan’s physical decline

• Jan is aging, and we've seen signs of slower entries, less explosion, and some timing issues.

• Coming off injuries or wars could’ve dulled his reflexes and cardio.

• He might still look dangerous early, but that fade in R2 or R3 is real now.

3. Speed & footwork mismatch

• Ulberg likely had the speed, angles, and range control to frustrate Jan.

• If Jan couldn’t cut him off or clinch him up early, he was going to be chasing shadows and eating shots.

4. Underestimating Ulberg’s power and accuracy

• Ulberg doesn’t need volume. He places sharp, fast strikes with surgical precision.

• Jan’s durability might’ve been overestimated based on past fights, but wear-and-tear adds up.

⚖️ Bottom line:

• I probably leaned too heavily on Jan’s veteran status, power, and grappling.

• I underrated Ulberg’s growth, composure, and ability to fight a clean, efficient striking battle.

• And I didn’t penalize Jan enough for age-related decline and recent damage.

Molly McCann vs. Alexia Thainara

✅ Molly McCann:

• UFC experience — fought higher-level opposition than Thainara.

• Pressure, brawling style — tends to overwhelm lower-level fighters when she's the favorite.

• Fighting at home or in a familiar market — often energizes her performances.

• Marketed fighter with crowd support — which can sway judging in close moments.

So if the pick was McCann to win, the idea was likely: “veteran pressure brawler vs UFC newcomer = safe bet.”

🚩 But here’s what was probably missed:

1. Massive grappling gap

• Thainara is a legit BJJ black belt and far more dangerous on the mat than her UFC-inexperienced label suggests.

• McCann’s grappling defense is a known hole — remember how Erin Blanchfield and Julija Stoliarenko ran through her on the ground.

• If Thainara got even one takedown, the fight was almost certainly going downhill fast.

2. Misleading MMA math

• “UFC newcomer = lower level” is not always true, especially for grappling specialists entering from strong regional scenes.

• Thainara’s record may not have looked elite, but her style and tools matched up terribly for McCann.

3. Overvaluing McCann’s pressure

• That style works great against strikers with poor movement or less power.

• But against someone who welcomes the clinch or grappling scrambles? It backfires.

• And if she gets reversed or taken down, her pressure game collapses.

4. Mental pressure and durability decline

• McCann has been through the UFC spotlight grinder — ups, downs, and viral knockouts (both delivering and receiving).

• That wears on a fighter. Confidence can dip, reaction time slows, and fighters start second-guessing themselves.

🧠 Takeaway:

This fight was likely a style mismatch hiding in plain sight. I probably:

• Overweighted UFC experience.

• Undervalued submission threats from new fighters.

• Ignored how much grappling vulnerability Molly has shown recently.

Fix for the model?

✅ Weight recent submission losses heavier — especially when facing a submission specialist. ✅ Treat stylistic mismatches (e.g. brawler vs BJJ ace) as red flags, regardless of UFC tenure. ✅ Adjust for recent performance trend, not just resume.

🧠 Why Herbert might’ve been the pick:

✅ On paper:

• UFC experience — fought the likes of Moicano, Topuria, Trinaldo, Ziam.

• Good technical striking — clean 1–2s, sharp kicks, respectable output.

• More proven level of opposition — Padilla was making his short-notice UFC debut.

So from a surface view: veteran striker + full camp + UFC experience vs a short-notice newcomer = obvious favorite, right?

❌ But here’s where the prediction probably failed:

1. Herbert’s durability issues are chronic

• Jai Herbert has been KO’d or rocked multiple times.

• He fades when pressured, especially by aggressive opponents who don’t respect his range tools.

• Even though Padilla wasn’t a name, he brought exactly the kind of chaos Herbert struggles with.

2. Padilla wasn’t a random walk-in

• He’s been training with killers (Team Oyama), stayed in fight shape, and wasn’t just showing up to collect a check.

• His style — pressure + unpredictability — is perfect for exploiting someone like Herbert who needs time and space.

• Also worth noting: Herbert tends to fight cautiously lately, especially after being hurt so many times.

3. Herbert’s career trend was downward

• He came in with:

  • Only 1 win in his last 5.

  • A DQ win over Klein that wasn't convincing.

  • Questions around his chin, confidence, and urgency.

• Padilla, meanwhile, came in hungry, with nothing to lose — and those guys are dangerous as hell in short-notice matchups.

4. Fight dynamics:

• If Herbert didn’t establish control early, Padilla’s pressure was going to snowball.

• And with Herbert’s suspect chin + tendency to slow down under pressure, it was a recipe for a short-notice upset.

📉 Summary: Why the pick was wrong

Nathan Fletcher vs Caolán Loughran

🧠 Why Fletcher might’ve been the pick:

• Height and reach advantage – he’s tall for the division with solid striking range.

• Fighting out of Team Kaobon – good camp with solid technical fundamentals.

• More polished on the feet – clean jab, calculated movement, good composure.

• Perceived edge in technical striking – especially against an aggressive guy like Loughran.

So it might’ve looked like: “If Fletcher keeps it long, picks his shots, avoids the brawl, he wins.”

❌ But here’s what probably went wrong in the prediction:

1. Loughran's pressure style is a problem

• Caolán Loughran weaponizes pace. He’s not there to win on points — he wants to break you mentally and physically.

• Fletcher’s long, upright stance is vulnerable to:

  • Pressure

  • Clinch grinding

  • Level changes

  • Power hooks in close range

• Loughran’s relentless aggression likely forced Fletcher backward, smothering his striking advantage.

2. Fletcher’s historical struggles with pressure

• In Cage Warriors, Fletcher has shown issues when opponents don’t let him fight at his preferred rhythm.

• He’s great when he’s the hammer — but when he’s the nail?

  • Less head movement.

  • Tends to back up in straight lines.

  • Defense collapses under sustained attack.

3. Loughran was underrated because of UFC debut

• His UFC debut against Taylor Lapilus didn’t go well — but that was short notice, and he got outclassed technically.

• However, Fletcher doesn’t fight like Lapilus. He’s not a high-volume, elusive, technical sniper. He’s methodical.

• That gave Loughran a style opening to impose his will without getting punished on entries.

4. Intangibles: mindset, grit, pace

• Loughran fights with a chip on his shoulder — cardio for days, full confidence, and not afraid to brawl.

• Fletcher is technically sound, but possibly lacks the dog mentality that Loughran thrives on exploiting.

🔍 Post-fight breakdown likely looks like:

• Loughran closed distance fast, got into the pocket, and made it ugly.

• Fletcher couldn’t establish range or tempo.

• Once Loughran’s pressure kicked in, the fight became a war Fletcher wasn’t built for.

✅ Model Fix Ideas:

• Flag fighters who need range and rhythm as vulnerable to pressure-heavy opponents.

• Track fighters who’ve shown resilience and cardio in ugly fights — they win more often than the “cleaner” fighter in these matchups.

• Penalize overreliance on “technical edge” when the opponent brings pace, aggression, and grit.

Guram Kutateladze vs Kauê Fernandes

🧠 Why Guram might’ve been the pick:

• Fought elite competition – split decision loss to Gamrot, war with Damir Ismagulov, etc.

• Clean striking, power, and experience – more polished on paper than Kauê.

• Gritty and battle-tested – looked like the kind of guy who would welcome a brawl and stay composed.

So a reasonable assumption was: “Guram has faced killers and held his own — Kauê won’t overwhelm him.”

❌ But here’s what the model likely missed:

1. Kauê Fernandes is dangerous and unpredictable

• Kauê has that “chaotic opportunist” energy — he throws sharp, explosive strikes, and doesn’t hesitate to go all-in when he smells blood.

• He’s not technical, but he’s fast, creative, and violent — and sometimes that’s all it takes, especially against a guy like Guram who tends to fight reactively.

2. Guram has mental lapses and takes unnecessary risks

• Despite his skillset, Guram tends to get drawn into wild exchanges, where his chin and timing don’t always hold up.

• He doesn’t fight defensively — he fights emotionally, and that’s exploitable.

• He’s also had a long layoff before this fight, and ring rust could’ve been real.

3. Underrated explosiveness from Fernandes

• Kauê’s explosiveness and fearlessness caught Guram before he could settle into rhythm.

• Guram likes to feel out opponents — but when a guy like Kauê starts hot, you don’t get that luxury.

4. Mismatch in urgency

• Kauê came out like it was his shot to make a name.

• Guram might’ve expected a slower pace or assumed his experience would carry him.

• But if you start slow and Kauê blitzes you early, there’s no time to make reads.

🎯 Big Picture:

✅ What to fix:

• Flag fighters with a tendency to brawl or start slow as high-risk vs fast starters.

• Track opponent finishing instincts – some guys hunt for finishes the second they see an opening (like Kauê).

• Penalize fighters coming off long layoffs when facing wild, high-energy newcomers.