UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg Analysis
Manuel Torres vs Drew Dober
🔍 Prediction Recap:
I likely leaned toward Manuel Torres based on:
Youth + momentum: Torres entered with finishing ability and a fresh wave of hype.
Dober’s durability concerns: He'd taken damage in recent fights and can be hit.
Torres’s explosive offense: Quick starter, heavy kicks, and dangerous in early exchanges.
But…
âś… What Actually Happened:
Drew Dober knocked out Manuel Torres in Round 1.
🔎 What Went Wrong in the Prediction:
1. Underestimated Dober’s chin & firepower
Dober has been hurt before but rarely actually finished, especially in round one.
I may have overcorrected based on recent wars (like vs. Matt Frevola), assuming he was on a decline.
In reality, Dober is still extremely durable and more experienced than Torres by miles.
2. Overvalued Torres’s finishing skill against elite opposition
Torres had explosive early wins, but not against high-level opponents.
He looked sharp early, but once Dober adjusted, Torres didn’t show much beyond the initial burst.
Dober handled the storm and fired back harder — something Torres hadn’t really faced before in the UFC.
3. Style clash misread — both hit hard, but Dober’s composure + timing > raw explosiveness
This was essentially a brawler vs. brawler, but Dober’s counter-left was sharper and shorter.
Torres’s aggression played into Dober’s pocket game — a classic case of walking onto a left hand.
4. Experience gap mattered
Dober has fought elite names (Islam, Bobby Green, Rafael Alves).
Torres never fought someone with Dober’s combination of durability, power, and composure.
🛠️ Going Forward:
For similar matchups:
Avoid overvaluing flashy early finishes against low-tier opponents.
Consider pocket-boxing and durability as a neutralizer to raw explosiveness.
Fighters like Dober with insane recovery, veteran timing, and bomb-proof chins should never be counted out in a brawl unless there’s serious decline or a clear stylistic mismatch.
Ronaldo RodrĂguez vs Kevin Borjas
🔍 Prediction Recap:
I likely leaned toward Kevin Borjas, possibly due to:
His explosive striking, leg kicks, and durability shown in his UFC debut vs. Joshua Van.
Ronaldo RodrĂguez being a UFC newcomer, which can carry debut jitters or unproven levels of composure.
A perception that Borjas was more dangerous as a striker, especially early.
âś… What Actually Happened:
Ronaldo RodrĂguez won via decision in a very high-paced, back-and-forth fight.
He absorbed Borjas’s best strikes, pushed a brutal pace, and started pulling ahead late.
🔎 What Went Wrong in the Prediction:
1. Underestimated RodrĂguez’s cardio, pace, and durability
RodrĂguez showed up with a nonstop gas tank, high volume, and pressure.
He ate Borjas’s shots and kept coming — a trait that breaks many explosive but lower-volume strikers.
This performance revealed next-level toughness and composure for a debutant.
2. Overvalued Borjas’s power threat without enough volume
Borjas is a crisp striker, but once his leg kicks were absorbed, he faded under pressure.
He doesn’t deal well when he can’t control tempo — and RodrĂguez completely took that away.
The fight showed RodrĂguez was more well-rounded and better conditioned.
3. Fight IQ & adjustments
RodrĂguez made in-fight adjustments, especially in how he pressured Borjas against the cage and mixed in body work.
Borjas had less adaptability when his power shots didn’t put Ronaldo away.
4. Debutant misread
This is a good example of where I should have weighed regional scene tape and durability under chaos more than just UFC tenure.
RodrĂguez looked calm under fire, like he’d fought tougher battles before — even if they weren’t in the UFC.
🛠️ Going Forward:
For future fights like this:
Be cautious penalizing UFC newcomers if they show a strong regional resume and pressure style — especially at flyweight.
Pressure + volume + chin can outperform power and UFC experience when the pace can’t be managed.
When an explosive striker doesn’t finish early, the tide often turns quickly — especially in 125ers.